The Coming Civil War in Europe

The Leftist-Liberal demographic engineering project of the European Union violates the rights of indigenous European peoples, goes against global trends towards the territorial partition of ethnic groups, and contradicts expert research on conditions that create ethnic and political conflict. The continuous practice of settling large numbers of non-Europeans into regions already inhabited by European indigenous populations but who have very low fertility rates inevitably alters the ethnic compositions of European nation-states, renders Europeans demographic minorities in their own homelands, affects the distribution of political power and the relations between ethnic groups, and causes a variety of other conflicts and problems, including civil war. 

Engineering Multi-Ethnic States through Immigration

In this article I will be drawing on the existing research on the factors that have brought about ethnic conflict in history and in recent decades in the Third World to show that the same factors are being reproduced in Europe as our current elites go about engineering European nations into multi-ethnic states through mass immigration. 

According to Myron Weiner and Sharon Stanton Russell, demographic research has found that countries with low fertility rates that also experience large-scale international migration tend to suffer from "violent ethnic conflict and political instability," an erosion of national identity and sovereignty, as well as "radicalism, terrorism, religious fundamentalism, environmental degradation, and economic growth and stagnation."[1] According to Frank Salter, research shows that "ethnic diversity tends to increase social conflict and crime, undermine welfare, exacerbate ethnic inequality, racialize politics and erode civil liberties."[2]

According to Tatu Vanhanen, "two thirds of global variation in ethnic conflict was explained by ethnic diversity" and according to Irenaeus Eibl-Eibesfeldt "large scale mixing of different ethnicities reduces social stability and risks domestic peace."[3] According to Michael Teitelbaum, "large-scale population movements across borders by refugees or other migrants can affect the cohesion of societies and generate social and political conflict both within and between countries."[4] And according to Monica Toft, multiethnic states are "the most violence prone settlement pattern" of distinct ethnic groups.[5] 

Toft explains that demographic balances are key to ensuring stability and peace in multi-ethnic states but violence and civil war can result from a shift in these ethnic balances. What causes these shifts? "Differential birth/fertility rates and economic immigration," "deliberate state manipulation," and "[m]ass migration and resettlement."[6] Toft also describes the five main theories for why conflict and civil war occurs between ethnic groups: "ancient hatreds;" "modernization;" "relative deprivation;" "security dilemma;" and "elite manipulation."[7]

In brief, the demographic engineering of sovereign nations with low fertility populations by high fertility in-migration shifts the ethnic composition of said populations (creates multi-ethnic states) and long-standing ethnic rivalries, competition, grievances, and territorial boundaries between immigrants and the native population, as well as hostile political leadership, can make violence between ethnic groups, and between the native population and the political elite, more likely. 

In European nations, contentious relations between ethnic minorities and indigenous Europeans are due, in part, to cultural and ethnic differences (i.e. Muslims, Africans, Arabs compared to Christian, secular, atheist, Europeans), past and present grievances (e.g. slavery, colonialism, wars, hegemony), and the rapid growth of distinct non-European immigrant populations. And the tensions between native Europeans and their political elites are based, in part, on hostile demographic policies that alter the ethnic compositions and undermine the distinct ethno-cultural identities, political cultures, and institutions of European peoples and homelands. 

Power Transition and the Likelihood of Civil War

According to the logic of "Power Transition Theory," large-scale non-European immigration in the form of settlement in low-fertility European nation-states leads to a shift in the size of ethnic minority populations (the creation of multiethnic states) creating a "tipping" point whereby ethnic majorities become a demographic minority. According to the democratic principle of majority rule, when an ethnic majority becomes an ethnic minority they lose their legitimacy to govern the state. Just before, during, or after such a power transition occurs, power becomes contested and violence and civil wars are likely to break out, particularly if the migrants do not intend to integrate and/or are engaged in a war of opposition (Third Worldists, Islamists, and cultural Marxists).[8] 

However, alterations to the notion of political community and national identity in Europe through cosmopolitan constitutional citizenship, as well as the replacement of ethno-European political institutions with multicultural organizations that are decidedly non-ethnically European in nature, means that such a power transition can occur earlier because majority rule becomes defined by political qualifications rooted in non-European ethnic identity political groups and pro-immigration Left-Liberal political parties. 

In terms of majority rule based on ethnic rather than political groups, according to Tanja Ellingsen "wars are more likely to occur when the largest group is less than 80 percent."[9] In some European nations foreign-born populations already exceed 20 percent of the national population and demographers are predicting that Europeans will become full minorities in the latter half of the 21st century. This means that civil wars in Europe are likely to occur in the near future. 

Read the rest of Claire Ellis’ article at the Council of European Canadians.

[1] Myron Weiner and Sharon Stanton Russell (eds.), Demography and National Security, New York, Oxford, Berghahn Books, 2001, p.1

[2] Germany's Jeopardy, YouTube video, 30:50, posted by Frank Salter, January 5 2016; Frank Salter, Germany's Jeopardy: Could the Immigrant Influx "End European Civilization"? Council of European Canadians, January 15 2016

[3] Salter, Germany's Jeopardy

[4] Michael Teitelbaum, "The Role of the State in International Migration," The Brown Journal of World Affairs, vol. 8, no. 2, Winter 2002, 157-167, p. 158

[5] Monica Duffy Toft, "Indivisible Territory, Geographic Concentration, and Ethnic War," Security Studies, vol 12, no. 2, Winter 2002/2003, pp. 82-119 (82, 117)

[6] Monica Duffy Toft, "The State of the Field: Demography and War," ECSP Report, no. 11, 2005, pp. 25-28 (p.26); Myron Weiner and Michael Teitelbaum, Political Demography, Demographic Engineering, New York, Oxford, Berghahn Books, 2001, pp. 32-33, 46

[7] Toft, Indivisible Territory, pp. 82-84

[8] Monica Duffy Toft, "Population Shifts and Civil War: A Test of Power Transition Theory,"International Interactions, vol. 33, no. 3, July 2007, pp. 243-269 (243-244, 248)

[9] Ellingsen as cited in ibid., p. 247